The tides have turned in North Carolina: they've become (light) red

An intriguing early voting shift is underway in North Carolina. Let's see if it holds.

Early voting data can be deceiving, especially if interpreted inaccurately. It was used to predict a Hillary Clinton victory in Florida during the 2016 election. Republicans assumed in 2022 it meant a red tsunami nationwide.

Still - we are seeing shifts not just from 2020 but 2022. North Carolina is one of the battleground states that reports party registration, alongside Pennsylvania, Arizona and Nevada.

The state is also correlated to Pennsylvania’s shifts in presidential elections. And - Donald Trump requires the state to win the election. Without it, his path not only severely narrows but becomes highly statistically unlikely.

Something interested happened in North Carolina’s early voting on Oct. 24, though. What might that mean?